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Will COVID-19 outbreak spark another global financial crisis?

세계 경제를 흔든 코로나19의 경제에 미치는 영향과 전망

Possibly the gravest threat to the world economy since the 2008 global financial crisis.
That’s according to the OECD this week,… as the epidemic slams all sectors of the economy from manufacturing and supply chains to universities and even film productions.
COVID-19 is affecting businesses and daily lives, especially in countries where the coronavirus has hit the hardest South Korea, China, and Italy just to name a few.
So how should the world respond? We connect with Dr. Oh Joon-seok,… business professor at Sookmyung Women’s University,… Dr. Ramon Pacheco-Pardo, Reader of Int’l relations at Kings College London and Dr. Graham Ong-Webb who joins us from Singapore’s Nanyang University.
Thank you for being with us. Now…
Q1. If the COVID-19 crisis continues,… the IMF says the world’s GDP growth could drop by point-five percentage points,… from its earlier estimate for this year. The OECD is even more pessimistic,… saying global growth could dip as low as one-point-five percent,… half of the three percent growth it projected in November last year.

(1 ) Dr. Oh, let’s start with you. China’s lockdown and curbs on the movement of people and resources are a big set back to the global value chain. Which countries and sectors should be the most concerned?

Q2.
And you, Dr. Pacheco Pardo? The EU is expected to be the hardest hit in terms of trade… as you can see here on the screen. It’s expected to lose out on over 15-point-6 billion dollars in trade,… according to estimates released on Wednesday. Which regions should be the most worried about a protracted economic slowdown?

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Q3.
Well, central banks and governments have been rolling out emergency measures to try and reassure businesses and stabilize financial markets. And Dr. Webb, global stocks rallied after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by half-percentage point in an effort to support the economy in the face of the spreading coronavirus. Is that enough to cushion the fallout?

Q4.
The idea of a rate cut is to get people and businesses spending and borrowing money so that cash keeps circulating. But that goes against the instructions we’ve been given to prepare for the coronavirus. More and more places are restricting travel and a lot of people are working from home. Do you think that the rate cut can actually stimulate spending?

What do you think, Dr. Oh? Do you think there’ll be another rate cut in the weeks to come?

Q5. Health experts say it could take up to 3 years to produce an effective vaccine. In the meantime, we could see more waves of COVID-19. Then, how should governments and central banks safeguard their economies and keep business rolling?

How about in the EU, where Italy is seeing confirmed cases soaring?

Finally, what about you, Dr. Oh? What should South Korea do to safeguard its economy?

I’m afraid that’s we’ll have to end the discussion today. Dr. Oh from Sookmyung Women’s University, Dr. Pacheco Pardo from Kings College London and Dr. Ong Webb of Nanyang University,… thank you for joining us

#global #coronavirus #economy

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